民族地区防返贫机制研究——基于多维返贫视角

Research on the Mechanism of Preventing the Return to Poverty in Ethnic Areas:From the Multi-dimensional Perspective

在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的大背景下,实现长效稳定脱贫、防止返贫已经成为我国当前经济建设的重要任务。本文基于2012-2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从多维返贫视角测度了我国民族地区的返贫状况,与非民族地区的返贫情况进行了对比,并对多维返贫影响因素进行了稳健回归分析。结果显示,截至2018年,民族地区的单维返贫率均控制在较低的水平,但多维返贫率仍达到16.2%,多维返贫主要是医疗健康、教育、收入和安全饮水四个维度上的返贫造成的。从返贫影响因素回归结果看,民族地区的返贫影响因素集中在家庭中老年人比例、少年儿童比例,劳动力接受培训比例、平均受教育年限,参加医疗保险的比例,政府资助和商业保险购买。基于分析结果提出建议:民族地区应建立科学的巩固脱贫成果考核体系,重视返贫的多维特性,加大对教育和医疗等公共服务的投入;加强就业扶贫;严格落实"四个不摘",稳固政策扶持力度并积极探索商业保险等市场化减贫措施。

In the context of consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation,realizing long-term and stable poverty alleviation and preventing returning to poverty has become an important task of China’s current economic construction.Based on the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2012-2018,the article measures the status of ethnic regions’returning to poverty in China.While compared with the condition of returning to poverty in non-ethnic areas,the article also conducted steady regression analysis of multidimensional influencing factors on returning to poverty.The results indicated as follows:as of 2018,the single-dimensional return rate to poverty in ethnic areas was controlled at a low level,but the multi-dimensional return rate to poverty was up to 16.2%.Multi-dimensional return to poverty is mainly caused by four factors including health care,education,income and safe drinking water.From the results of the influencing factors for return to poverty,the influencing factors of returning to poverty in ethnic areas are mainly demonstrated in the proportion of the elderly,the proportion of children,the proportion of the labor force’s receiving training,the proportion of government funding for participation in medical insurance,the average time for education;the proportion for joining health insurance;and the purchase of commercial insurance.Suggestions are made based on the analysis results:consolidate the assessment system for the achievements in poverty alleviation;pay attention to the multi-dimensional characteristics of returning to poverty;increase investment in public services such as education and health care;strengthen poverty alleviation through employment;strengthen policy support;and actively explore commercial insurance and other market-oriented poverty reduction measures.