反转或缓解?突发事件政府回应有效性研究——基于在线文本情感分析

Reversion or Ease?Research on the Effectiveness of Government Response in Emergencies ——Sentiment Analysis Based on Online Text

近年来,突发事件频繁发生,疲于应对的政府回应工作面临重重压力,而回应工作绩效如何评价以及如何提升政府回应能力并未得到深入研究。本文基于"意见-政策"连接理论对政府回应有效性展开逻辑梳理,明晰了传统"参与观"与现代"危机观"导向下政府回应有效性差异。融合话语理论与情感分析的思想,架构起面向情感管控的突发事件中政府回应有效性的两层次分析框架,即反转和缓解效应。以经典的上海"12·31"外滩拥挤踩踏事件为例进行个案分析与理论检验,运用情感分析法对该事件进程中42934条新浪微博文本进行分析,揭示了该事件演化进程中政府回应有效性的特征。结果表明:在该事件演化进程中政府回应有效性表现出"反转"效应失效,"缓解"效应存在的特征;三种回应特征均积极影响两种回应有效性,且"缓解"效应受到的作用力更强;在三种回应特征中,回应内容质量和回应话语扩散程度对回应有效性的影响较强。相关结论为进一步明确政府回应工作目标,优化政府回应效能提供了有价值的建议。

By improving government responsiveness,we can effectively deal with the public crisis in the context of emergencies.This is the essential requirement for the construction of a service-oriented government based on"citizen-centered"in the new era.In this context,strengthening the government’s response capacities in attaching importance to response performance evaluation have become effective means for the government to improve its governance capacity.Based on the Opinion-Policy framework,this article sorts out the theoretical logic of the effectiveness of government response and clarifies the difference between the effectiveness of government response under the guidance of traditional"participation concept"and modern"crisis concept".In addition,the discourse theory and sentiment analysis are integrated to construct an analytical framework for the effectiveness of government response in emergencies facing emotion control.Taking the classic Shanghai"12·31"Bund Crowding Stomp Event as a typical case,through comprehensive application of sentiment analysis,time series analysis and correlation analysis,the analysis of 42934 Sina Weibo posts in the event process,the results effectively reveal the characteristics of government response effectiveness and its relationship with response characteristic variables,showing that the effectiveness of government response was partially realized during the evolution of events,namely the Reversal Effect fails and the Mitigation Effect exists.All three response characteristics show positively effects,and the Mitigation Effect is stronger.Among the three response characteristics,the response content quality and the extent of response discourse diffusion have a strong impact on response effectiveness.This paper provides valuable suggestions for further clarifying the government’s response goals and optimizing the government’s response effectiveness.