老龄化背景下生育政策、教育政策的协同调整对宏观经济的影响

The Impact of Coordinated Adjustment of Birth Policy and Education Policy on Macro-economy under the Background of Ageing

在我国人口结构日趋老龄化背景下,单纯调整生育政策能否有效改变家庭生育行为和维持经济增速?是否需要对生育政策和教育政策进行协同调整?本文采用三期世代交叠模型研究人口老龄化、生育政策和教育政策的协同调整如何影响中国家庭的储蓄、教育投资决策和经济增长,并根据中国的现实数据和参数进行模拟分析和政策评价。研究发现:(1)虽然人口老龄化对家庭储蓄率及潜在经济增长率的影响在理论上是不确定的,但现实数据模拟结果显示,当前我国的人口老龄化程度已对家庭储蓄率和经济增长带来了确定性的不利影响。(2)提高生育率可在一定程度上缓解老龄化的影响,但仅依靠生育政策调整会导致家庭效用下降,无法有效提高家庭生育率和维持经济增速。(3)适当降低教育商品价格(提供教育商品价格补贴)、提高国家财政支出中公共教育投资占比,有助于缓解家庭因增加生育子女数量带来的效用下降,强化生育政策调整对经济增长的促进效果。

Can the mere adjustment of birth policy have a material effect on the aggravation of ageing population and the maintenance of economic growth in China? In the face of the short-term pain brought to families by the adjustment of fertility policy, can it be alleviated through the coordinated adjustment of both birth and education policies? To answer the question, this paper uses a three-phase intergenerational transition model to make a theoretical study on how the coordinated adjustment of both policies in response to population ageing affects Chinese household savings, education investment decision-making and economic growth, and carries out a simulation analysis and a policy evaluation according to China’s actual data and parameters. The concludions we reach are as follows.(1) Although the impact of population ageing on household saving rate and potential economic growth rate is uncertain in theoretical analysis, the simulation results of real data show that the degree of population ageing in China has brought certain adverse effects on household saving rate and economic growth.(2) To a certain extent, increasing the fertility rate can alleviate the adverse impact of ageing on economic growth, but only relying on the adjustment of fertility policy will lead to the decline of family utility, which can’t effectively improve the family fertility rate and maintain economic growth.(3) Appropriately reducing the price of education commodities(providing subsidies for the price of education commodities) and increasing the proportion of public education investment in the national financial expenditure can help alleviate the pain of utility decline caused by the increase in the number of children born in response to the policy, and can strengthen the promoting effect of the adjustment of birth policy on economic growth.