“一带一路”贸易网络能否促进各国全球价值链地位提升

Can Trade Network of the Belt and Road Countries Enhance the Status of the Global Value Chains

本文旨在考察“一带一路”贸易网络对各国全球价值链(GVC)地位提升的影响。运用网络分析方法,从联系广度、联系强度和中心性三个维度刻画各国的网络特征,并就贸易网络发展影响各国GVC地位提升的作用机理进行探讨与验证。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”贸易网络各国间的联系广度和联系强度提升显著,中国取代意大利成为网络中心地位最高的国家;(2)各样本国家在“一带一路”贸易网络的联系广度、联系强度和中心性的提升能够显著促进其GVC地位提升;(3)技术外溢、产业转移和规模经济是“一带一路”贸易网络影响各国GVC地位攀升的重要中介变量。其中,技术外溢发挥的中介效应最大,说明技术外溢是“一带一路”贸易网络促进各国GVC升级最重要的传导渠道。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of trade network in the Belt and Road Region on various countries’upgrading in Global Value Chains(GVC).Based on the analytic network process,this paper describes the network characteristics of different countries through the contact breadth,intensity and centrality.This paper also explores and validates the mechanism of how the development of trade relations network influences various countries’upgrading in GVC.As a result,three conclusions are drawn.Firstly,the breadth and intensity of ties between countries have increased significantly,and China has replaced Italy as the country with the highest central position in the network.Secondly,the upgrading of the contact breadth,intensity and centrality of the sample countries in trade network can significantly enhance their status in GVC.Thirdly,the mechanism tests indicate that technology spillover and industrial transfer and economy of scale are important mediator channels for trade network of the Belt and Road countries to reposition all the relevant countries in GVC.And the mediating effect of technology spillover is the biggest,which shows that technology spillover is the most important channel for trade network to promote all the relevant countries’upgrading in GVC.