黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的时空格局及影响因素

Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin

以黄河流域作为研究对象,通过构建新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合协调模型,定量测度了2005—2016年黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调的时空格局,以及二者同步发展的状态;通过构建随机效应面板Tobit模型,对黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的影响因素进行研究。结果表明:①黄河流域新型城镇化及生态环境子系统,以及耦合协调度均呈现先上升后下降的趋势;②黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合度均值在0.34~0.70之间,整体上处于拮抗阶段和磨合阶段。黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境的协调度均值处于0.20~0.60之间,整体处于低度协调和中度协调阶段;③黄河流域超过78%的地级市为生态滞后型城市,在新型城镇化快速推进背景下,生态环境的压力凸显;④经济发展水平、政府能力、科技投入等对于耦合协调度产生积极影响,对外开放程度、工业化水平对于黄河流域上游和中下游地区的耦合协调度产生不同的作用。在加快推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略背景下,摆脱区域发展的路径依赖对于推动新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合具有重要意义,黄河流域要针对上游和中下游地区采取差异化的策略来推动新型城镇化与生态环境耦合发展。

Taking the Yellow River Basin as an example,in this study the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment was examined,and the spatiotemporal differentiation and synchronous development state of the coupling and coordination from 2005 to 2016 were measured.Based on the Tobit model of random effect,the influencing factors of the coupling of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin were explained.The findings can be summarized as follows:(1)Index values of the new urbanization and ecological environment subsystems and the coupling and coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin were rising first and then declining.(2)The average coupling degree of new urbanization and ecological environment was between 0.34~0.70,which was in the stage of moderate development.The average coordination degree of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin was between 0.20~0.60,which was in the stage of low coordination and moderate coordination;(3)More than 78%of the cities in the Yellow River Basin lagged behin in ecological environment protection and the pressure of ecological environment are prominent under the background of rapid urbanization.(4)The level of economic development,capacity of the governments,and investment in science and technology have a positive impact on the degree of coupling and coordination;the degree of opening and the level of industrialization have different effects on the coupling and coordination of the upper and middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.Additional,reducing path dependency has great significance for promoting the coupling of new urbanization and ecological environment.Differentiated strategies should be adopted to promote the coupling development of new urbanization and ecological environment across the Yellow River Basin.