中国国家价值链的生产率效应

Productivity Effect of China’s National Value Chain

当前全球价值链不稳定性增强,我国的比较优势进入加速转换期,特别是在世界经济遭受新冠肺炎疫情冲击后,加快构建和完善中国国家价值链,对促进国内经济大循环、保障中国经济行稳致远具有重大战略意义。基于中国区域间投入产出表测算国家价值链分工程度,并实证检验其对全要素生产率的影响效果和作用机制,可以发现:中国国家价值链分工程度以2007年为界呈现先降低后回升的趋势,地区内贸易与分工是推动国家价值链分工深化的主要动力;国家价值链对全要素生产率呈现先挤出后激励的"U型"影响效应;国内市场的"高度连通"和"适度均衡"是支持国家价值链有效发挥生产率激励效应的互补性条件。未来,中国应继续依托国内市场优势,推动国家价值链分工体系构建,以充分释放其对全要素生产率的积极作用。同时,应重视国内市场互补性条件的配套和提升,一方面要依托国内统一市场、信息化和物流基础设施建设以及现代流通业发展,加快形成高度互联互通的国内大市场,另一方面要推动实现区域产业间的适度均衡发展,共同助力国家价值链分工深化对全要素生产率的积极效应。

During the current period of increased instability of the Global Value Chain system and accelerated transformation of internal comparative advantages,especially after the world economy has been hit by the COVID-19 epidemic,accelerating the development and improvement of China’s National Value Chain will strengthen the domestic economic cycle and China’s economic performance,which has great strategic value.This paper calculates the division degree of the National Value Chain based on China’s interregional input-output table,and examines its productivity growth effect.The study finds that:First,the division degree of the National Value Chain showed a trend of decreasing first and then rebounding in 2007.Intra-regional trade and division are the main driving forces for deepening the division of the National Value Chain;Second,there is a"U-shaped"relationship between the National Value Chain division and Total Factor Productivity,which is"crowded out"first and then"stimulated";Third,"highly connected"and"moderately balanced"are complementary market conditions which help the National Value Chain to release its productivity growth effect.Therefore,in the future,we should continue to rely on the advantages of China’s large domestic market and support the construction of the National Value Chain to release its productivity growth effect.At the same time,we should also pay attention to the complementation and improvement of complementary market conditions.On the one hand,we should rely on the integrated domestic market,informatization and logistics infrastructure construction and the development of modern circulation industry to accelerate the formation of a highly interconnected domestic market.On the other hand,it is necessary to promote moderate and balanced development among regional markets.These complementary market conditions will jointly help the National Value Chain to trigger the productivity growth effect as soon as possible.