我国基础设施投资对全要素生产率溢出效应的检验——基于1998—2019年时间序列数据

Study on the Spillover Effect of Infrastructure Investment to TFP in China: Based on Time Series Data in 1998-2019

国内经济增长已从约10%的平均增长,降到现在6%左右的增长。为了实现较高的增长,扩张性的财政政策仍然是主要政策,基础设施投资也是政府推动增长的必要手段。学界对加大基础设施投资推动经济增长的看法不一。在此背景下,文章通过建立实证模型,探讨基础设施投资对全要素生产率、资本和劳动生产要素是否存在"经济外部性",以证明有无加大基础设施投资的必要。经研究证明,国内基础设施投资对全要素生产率具有负向影响,且对资本和劳动也具有"外部不经济性"。对此,文章提出基础设施投资对全要素生产率影响的微观解释,并提出相关政策建议。

China’s domestic economic growth has dropped from an average growth rate of 10%to the current rate of 6%.In order to realize high growth expansionary fiscal policy is still the dominant one,while infrastructure investment is also a necessary means for the government to promote growth.In the academic community there are different views on increasing infrastructure investment to promote economic growth.In this context,an empirical model is established to explore whether infrastructure investment has“economic externalities”on total factor productivity,and capital and labor production factors,to prove whether it is necessary to increase infrastructure investment.The results show that infrastructure investment has negative effect on TFP and external diseconomies on capital and labor.This paper thus proposes a micro-interpretation of the impact of infrastructure investment on total factor productivity,and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.