腐败与人力资本迁移研究

Expulsion Effect of Corruption on Human Capital

利用1988—2019年我国各地腐败程度的面板数据,考察区域间腐败程度的差异与各地劳动市场对人力资本吸引力之间的关系,腐败在降低本地劳动力对人力资本投资意愿的同时,会对人力资本产生驱赶效应,从而造成人才赤字。实证结果表明,不管是直接作用还是通过收支余额和城镇化率等因素的间接驱赶效应,腐败使劳动力用脚投票,加剧了地区间人口赤字与人口顺差并存的现象,不利于区域间经济增长的趋同。同时驳斥了"腐败是经济增长的润滑剂"以及"反腐不利于经济增长"的观点。反腐败不仅是当前的重点政策考量,也会影响地区的长期增长潜力。

This study uses panel data from 1988 to 2019 on the level of corruption in various regions in China,and examines the relationship between the difference in the level of corruption between regions and the attractiveness of labor markets to human capital.Corruption reduces the willingness of the local labor force to invest in human capital,and at the same time it has an expulsion effect on human capital,resulting in a talent deficit.The results also show that,regardless of whether it is directly or indirectly driven by factors such as the balance of income and expenditure and the urbanization rate,corruption causes labor to vote with their feet,aggravates the coexistence of inter-regional population deficits and population surpluses,and is not conducive to the convergence of regional economic growth.At the same time,it refutes the views that“corruption is the lubricant of economic growth”and that“anti-corruption is not conducive to economic growth”.Anti-corruption is not only a key policy consideration at present,but also affects the long-term growth potential of the region.