中国碳市场建设对外商直接投资的影响研究

Research on the Impact of China’s Carbon Market Construction on Foreign Direct Investment

本文基于中国碳市场建设试点城市的“准自然实验”,探究了碳市场建设试点政策对外商直接投资的影响。研究结果表明:首先,碳市场建设试点对外商直接投资具有负向效应,在平行趋势、剔除政策叠加效应等稳健性检验后,结论依然稳健。其次,经中介效应检验,技术创新与空气污染是中国碳市场建设影响外商直接投资的两个重要机制。最后,碳市场建设对外商直接投资具有明显的异质性,碳市场建设对东、中部地区的外商直接投资具有显著的抑制效应,且碳市场建设对外商直接投资的抑制效应随着城市规模的变小和经济发展水平的降低而增强。

Based on the“quasi-natural experiment”of China’s carbon market construction pilot cities,this paper explores the impact of the carbon market construction pilot policy on foreign direct investment.The results show that:Firstly,the pilot carbon market construction has a negative effect on FDI,the result remains robust after the robustness tests of parallel trend and excluding the policy overlap effect.Secondly,the mediating effect test shows that technological innovation and air pollution are the two important mechanisms,through which China’s carbon market construction affects FDI.Thirdly,carbon market construction has a significant heterogeneity in FDI;carbon market construction has a significant negative effect on FDI in the east and central regions;and the negative effect of carbon market construction on FDI increases as the size of cities becomes smaller and the level of economic development decreases.