1973—2013年上海市长宁区宫颈癌发病率和死亡率时间趋势分析

Time Trend of Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Changning District of Shanghai

[目的]分析上海市长宁区宫颈癌的发病和死亡情况,以及相应的时间趋势。[方法]根据上海市长宁区1973—2013年宫颈癌发病、死亡和相应人口资料,计算宫颈癌粗发病率和死亡率、标准化发病率和死亡率等指标。应用Joinpoint软件分析世界人口标化率的趋势变化,计算其年均变化百分比。并进一步构建年龄—时期—队列模型,分析三个因素对宫颈癌发病率和死亡率的影响。[结果]1973—2013年上海市长宁区共新发宫颈癌835例,世界人口标化发病率6.51/10万;死亡例数390例,世界人口标化发病率2.77/10万。Joinpoint趋势分析结果显示,长宁区宫颈癌发病率和死亡率分别以年均3.50%和5.10%的速度下降(P<0.001)。年龄—时期—队列模型分析显示,宫颈癌的发病率和死亡率同时受年龄、时期、队列三个因素的影响(P均<0.001)。[结论]1973—2013年间上海市长宁区宫颈癌发病率和死亡率整体虽呈下降趋势,但表现一定程度的发病和死亡年轻化趋势,对宫颈癌的预防和筛查亟需重视。

[Purpose]To analyze the time trends of cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Changning District of Shanghai.[Methods]The cancer registration data from the Shanghai Cancer Registry and population data from the Changning District Bureau of Public Security were used to calculate crude and age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer.Joinpoint analysis was applied to analyze the trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality,and the average annual percentage change was calculated.The age-period-cohort model was further constructed to analyze the effects of age,period and cohort on the incidence and mortality.[Results]From 1973 to 2013,an estimated 835 women developed cervical cancer and 390 women died of it in the Changning District of Shanghai,the corresponding standardized rates of incidence and mortality were 6.51 and 2.77 per 100000,respectively.The results of the trend analysis showed that the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in the district were decreased at an average annual percent changes of 3.50%and 5.10%(P<0.001).Analysis of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer were affected by three factors of age,period,and cohort(all P<0.001).[Conclusion]The overall incidence and mortality of cervical cancer among women in the Changning District of Shanghai show a decreased trend in past 41 years.However,there is a trend of incidence and mortality toward to younger age.Therefore,the prevention and screening of cervical cancer still needed urgent attention.