北京市东城区2013-2019年肺结核流行病学特征及疫情趋势预测

Epidemiological characteriatics and epidemic trend prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis in Dongcheng district of Beijing in 2013-2019

目的分析北京市东城区2013-2019年常住人口肺结核流行病学特征及趋势预测,为制定防控措施提供依据。方法应用描述性流行病学方法对2013-2019年北京市东城区报告的肺结核病例数据进行分析,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对2020-2022年肺结核流行趋势进行预测。结果2013-2019年,东城区累计报告肺结核病例1946例,其中男性1223例,女性723例,性别比为1.69∶1,各年男性发病率均高于女性发病率,且各年男女发病率的差异均有统计学意义(P<0.01)。2013-2019年总人口发病率、男性发病率、女性发病率均呈下降趋势(P<0.01)。55岁以上老年组、25~34岁青壮年组为重点防控人群,发病数位于前三位的职业分别是离退休人员、家务及待业、干部职员。发病数位于前三位的街道分别为和平里街道、永定门外街道和东花市街道,全年发病数以3月最多。应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测2020-2022年东城区肺结核发病率分别为27.78/10万、27.60/10万、27.42/10万。结论北京市东城区肺结核疫情呈现缓慢下降的趋势,应加强重点防控人群和街道的健康宣教,积极开展各类培训。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis among local residents in Dongcheng district of Beijing in 2013-2019,and to predict the disease trend.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the clinical data of cases with pulmonary tuberculosis reported in Dongcheng district during 2013 and 2019,and GM(1,1)gray system model was used to predict disease epidemic trend in 2020-2022.Results From 2013 to 2019,a total of 1946 cases with pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Dongcheng district,including 1223 male cases and 723 female cases,with male/female ratio of 1.69∶1.The annual case number and annual incidence in male residents were both higher than that in females,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.01).During the study period,the overall incidence rate and,incidence rates in male and female residents showed down-ward trend(P<0.01).Majority of cases were senior residents aged over 55 years and young adults aged 25-34 years,and were retired,unemployed residents and cadres.Most cases lived in Hepingli street,Yongdingmenwai street and Donghua street.Most cases appeared in March.The GM(1,1)grey system model predicted that the incidence of tuberculosis in Dongcheng district would be 27.78/100000 in 2020,27.60/100000 in 2021 and 27.42/100000 in 2022.Conclusions Even though the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Dongcheng district of Beijing decreases,health education should still be strengthened especially among disease vulnerable population.