2008-2017年银川市手足口病发病的聚类及预测分析

Clustering and prediction analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Yinchuan in 2008-2017

目的描述2008-2017年宁夏回族自治区银川市手足口病(hand-foot and wouth disease,HFMD)流行特征,并预测未来三年的发病趋势,为制定有效的防控策略提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法选取2008-2017年间银川市手足口病患者的监测资料进行整理分析,用SPSS21.0完成了HFMD报告发病数的聚类分析和时间序列分析,并用时间序列模型预测未来三年的月发病数。结果银川市2010年HFMD的发病人数最多为5055例,其次为2015年4763例;发病高峰为6、7月份且被聚为一类,流行季节为夏秋季,最优拟合模型为ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)12,其平稳R2=0.790,BIC为9.565。结论银川市HFMD的发生存在明显的季节差异,SARIMA模型能较好地拟合2008-2017年每月实际发病数并预测2018-2020年各月发病数,可以为手足口病的防控工作提供科学依据。

Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Yinchuan of Ningxia during 2008 and 2017,and to predict disease trend in the next three years,so as to provide evidence for formulating effective prevention and control strategies.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance data of HFMD in Yinchuan during 2008 and 2017.SPSS 21.0 software was used for disease clustering and time series analysis and time series model was used to predict the incidence of HFMD in the next three years.Results The incidence of HFMD in Yinchuan in 2010 was the highest with 5055 cases,followed by 4763 cases in 2015.The disease seasonal peak was in June and July,and was clustered into one group.The epidemic season was in summer and autumn.The optimal fitting model was ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)12,with stable R^2 of 0.790 and BIC of 9.565.Conclusions There are obvious seasonal differences in the incidence of HFMD in Yinchuan City.SARIMA model can better fit the actual incidence of HFMD from 2008 to 2017 and predict the incidence of HFMD from 2018 to 2020.It can provide reference for the prevention and treatment of HFMD.