应对老龄化的几点公共政策思考

Some Public Policy Thoughts on Coping with Aging

伴随着人口世代更迭,中国面临日益严重的老龄化问题以及由其带来的长寿风险。为降低老龄化对经济社会系统的冲击,学者们在退休、养老制度以及生育政策等方面展开探讨,形成了百家争鸣的局面。面对不同的学术观点,围绕在上述方面的争议,作者提出面对扑面而来的老龄潮,短期为分散养老潮,降低改革阻力和减缓养老潮对社会经济系统的负面冲击:其一,在实行普遍延迟退休之前,需先实施逐步或者弹性延迟退休;为实现逐步和弹性延迟退休之前的初始公平性,需先实行分类延迟退休。其二,更替养老制度,创新养老模式:在全球化和和开放的视野下,增加养老金的积累效应,提高养老金的收益;变传统散养的养老模式为集中供养,注重城乡在生产和养老上的分工,把农村打造成养老天堂,进而提高养老生产率水平。长期,由于延迟退休效应、基金制养老制度效应的衰减以及提高养老生产率水平的人口基础丧失,唯有通过放开生育,才能迎接未来普遍延迟退休之后60后婴儿潮引发的养老潮以及不断加深的老龄化,而生育力量能否精准释放和生育的养老目标能否实现依赖于社会制度建设,如人口金融的开展。

With the change of population generation,China is facing an increasingly serious aging and the risk of longevity.In the face of these different academic views and the controversies surrounding the above-mentioned aspects,the authors put forward some thoughts,as follows:in the face of the oncoming aging wave,in the short term,in order to disperse the retirement wave,reduce the resistance to reform and mitigate the negative impact of the retirement wave on the socio-economic system:first,before implementing universal delayed retirement,it is necessary to implement gradual or flexible delayed retirement;in order to achieve gradual and flexible delayed retirement,it is necessary to implement categorical delayed retirement firstly.Secondly,we should replace the pension system and innovate the pension model:under the globalization and open vision,we should increase the accumulation effect of pensions and improve the income of pensions;we should change the traditional scattered mode of supporting for the elderly to the mode of supporting for the elderly,focus on the division between urban and rural areas in production and supporting for the elderly,and make the rural areas a paradise for the elderly,thus improving the productivity level of supporting for the elderly.In the long run,due to the decay of the delayed retirement effect,the effect of the fund pension system,and the loss of the demographic base for raising the pension productivity level,the only way to cope with the future pension wave caused by the post-60 s baby boom after the general delayed retirement and the deepening aging is to improve fertility level,and whether the fertility force can be precisely released and whether the pension goal of fertility can be achieved depends on the construction of social institutions,such as the development of population finance.