综合能源服务效用模型及用户需求评估

Utility Model and Demand Assessment Method of Integrated Energy Service

目前,实现综合能源服务规模化发展面临巨大挑战,缺乏合理可行的市场化推广机制及运营技术是导致这一问题的关键因素。该文从综合能源服务市场推广和实际运营的角度探讨综合能源服务的内涵,并提出以增值功能、技术方案、服务模式、服务量级为层次的服务架构。首先,基于综合能源服务的服务能力与用户用能情况在时间维度和类属维度上的匹配关系,建立服务效用模型,量化服务满足用户多元用能需求的程度;其次,提出综合能源服务需求的概念及区间评估方法,分析用户在不同价格水平和消费目标下所可能选购的服务供能设备容量范围;最后,通过实证分析验证所提方法能有效反映用户对综合能源服务的感知效益及购买行为,能够对能源供应商推广综合能源服务提供一定的策略支撑。

The large-scale development of integrated energy service still faces huge challenges due to the lack of reasonable and feasible promotion mechanisms and operation technologies.This paper explored the connotation of integrated energy service from the perspective of market promotion and operation.The architecture of service was proposed based on value-added function,technical solution,service mode,and service level.A service utility model was constructed by considering both aspects of time dimension and category dimension.This model could match the relationship between ability of integrated energy service and energy consumption of users.The aim of utility calculating was to identify the extent to which user demands are met.The concept and interval estimation method of integrated energy service demand was proposed to analyze the range of installation capacity chosen by users under different price levels and consumption targets.In the last chapter,the proposed methodology were applied to several instances,and the results show that these methods can effectively reflect the perceived benefits and purchase behavior of users,and also support the energy suppliers to promote integrated energy service.