地方政府债务、政府公开透明与经济增速

Local Government Debt,Government Transparency and Economic Growth Rate

在经济冲击不断和不确定性激增的全球环境下,各国政府尝试举债以应对经济下行。然而,政府债务对经济增长的影响并没有一致的结论。本文以全球最大的发展中国家为背景,收集320个中国地级市样本,评估地方政府债务对经济增长的影响。实证分析发现,短期内,地方政府债务对经济增长具有显著的抑制效应,主要通过提高政府支出、抑制企业投资,从而降低社会经济增长的效率与潜力实现,但这种抑制性会在公开透明的政治环境中被削弱。本文旨在通过实证研究,客观认识地方政府债务对经济增长的短期影响,以此警示政府谨慎对待地方政府债务,警惕地方政府债务的负向效应。面对高企的地方政府债务,公开透明的政治环境是抑制财政风险、提高财政可持续性的重要保障。

With ongoing economic shocks and surging uncertainty at the global level,governments have attempted to raise debt to cope with the economic downturn.However,there are no consistent findings on the impact of government debt on economic growth.Taking 320 Chinese prefecture-level cities as a sample,this paper assesses the impact of local government debt on economic growth in the context of the world’s largest developing country.The empirical analysis indicates that in the short run,local government debt has a significant inhibition effect on economic growth,and it is primarily produced by raising government expenditure and discouraging corporate investment,therefore reducing the efficiency and potential of socioeconomic growth.However,this inhibitory nature would be weakened in an open and transparent political environment.This study seeks to objectively explain the short-term impact of local government debt on economic growth through empirical analysis,so as to alert the government to be cautious of the adverse effects of local government debt.In the face of high local government debt,an open and transparent political environment is an important safeguard to curb fiscal risks and improve fiscal sustainability.