企业金融化提高了银行信贷风险吗?

Does Firm Financialization Improve Bank Credit Risk?

近年来,国内经济体系出现了明显的"脱实向虚"趋势,对实体经济和金融稳定具有一定的影响。本文构建了一个包括持有债权性金融资产的生产企业、持有股权性金融资产的生产企业、向两类企业发放贷款的商业银行三部门的资产负债表模型,进而利用中国2008~2017年1268家上市企业数据分析得出:经济体系中不同的实体企业之间相互投资债权性和股权性金融资产,一定程度上会推动银行贷款违约风险概率的上升;企业金融资产率对银行不良贷款率的影响与企业杠杆率的影响相当;政府对企业的补贴未弱化企业"脱实向虚"行为,也未弱化这一行为对银行风险的影响;房产价格上升有利于降低当期的银行风险,但会加剧未来一段时间的银行风险。这对中国健全金融风险管理、预防系统性金融风险具有一定的参考意义。

Preventing financial"de-realization"and preventing systemic financial risks are important issues in China.The micro-performance of financial"de-reality"is the firms financialization.By observing the quantitative relationship between firms financialization and bank non-performing loan ratio,this paper establishes produc-tion firms holding creditor financial assets,production firms holding equity financial assets,and commercial banks that issues loans to two types of enterprises.This pa-per draws the following conclusions:(1)The mutual investment of credit and eq uity financial assets among different non-financial enterprises in the economic system will promote the rise of the probability of bank loan default risk,reflected in the in crease in debt scale not only at the individual firm,but also at the firms system.(2)From the perspective of firmsdynamics cash flow,with the increase of the pro portion of firms financial assets,the proportion of investment financing in the firms system is reduced,and the proportion of speculative financing is rising,which leads to an increase in the default probability of bank loans and an increase in the risk of financial instability.(3)The impact of firms financial asset investment on bank loan risk is similar to the impact of firms leverage.Although the rise in property prices is conducive to reducing the current bank risks,it will aggravate bank risk in the next period.In order to prevent banks'risks,some actions should be taken,such as improving and the financial rules,and enhancing banks'risk responsibility and risk managementability.