保险业规模、人力资本与城乡收入差距——基于1999~2018年省级面板门槛模型

Insurance Industry Scale,Human Capital and Urban-Rural Income Gap——Based on 1999~2018 Provincial Panel Threshold Model

本文从普及效应、人力资本效应、非均衡效应三个维度分析了保险业规模对城乡收入差距的作用机理。采用1999~2018年中国省级面板数据进行实证分析发现:第一,保险业规模扩大能够显著抑制城乡收入差距的增加;第二,人力资本的提高加剧了城乡收入不平等,这是因为城乡人力资本差距长期存在;第三,人力资本能够调节保险业规模对城乡收入差距的影响,并且由于人力资本门槛效应的存在,保险业规模对城乡收入差距的影响是非线性的,即随着人力资本的增加,保险业规模对于缩小城乡收入差距的作用逐步减弱,直至变成反向作用。本文最后从农村政策倾斜角度提出相应的政策建议。

This paper analyzed the effect mechanism of insurance industry scale on the urban-rural income gap from three dimensions:universal effect,human capital effect and disequilibrium effect.Empirical analysis using provincial panel data in china from 1999 to 2018 found that:firstly,the scale of insurance industry could significantly inhibit the expansion of urban-rural income gap;secondly,human capital would widen the urban-rural income gap because of the urban-rural human capital gap;thirdly,human capital could adjust the impact of insurance industry scale on the urban-rural income gap,and due to the existence of the human capital threshold effect,this impact was non-linear.Insurance industry scale could reduce urban-rural income gap,however,with the increase of human capital,the effect was gradually weakened until it became a reverse effect.Finally,this article put forward corresponding policy suggestions from the rural-oriented policies.