农地流转:空间格局演变与空间依赖性研究

Rural Land Transfers:Analysis on the Evolution of Spatial Patterns and Spatial Dependence

基于空间行为经济学和空间计量经济学的研究成果提出理论假设,利用2003~2017年中国农地流转省际面板数据,运用空间计量模型,首次从全国层面对农地流转的空间格局演变及空间依赖性展开量化研究。结果表明:(1)2003~2017年,农地流转空间分布呈梯度变化。(2)农地流转水平趋同趋势显著,区域内差异弱化是导致总体差异下降的核心驱动因素。(3)内部因素中,其所含变量对本地区影响的直接效应显著,但空间溢出效应并不明显;外部因素中,不同变量所产生的直接效应和溢出效应并不具有共时性。农地"三权分置"背景下,如何从总体和局部空间层面实现农地适度规模经营、优化农地资源空间配置效率以及凸显促进农地流转交易的激励因素为政策启示所在。

A theoretical hypothesis is proposed based on recent development in spatial economics and spatial econometrics,and spatial regression models are adopted in order to launch quantitative analysis towards the spatial characteristics and spatial dependence of rural land transfers,for the first time,on the nationwide using China’s provincial panel data related to rural land transfers from 2003-2017.Results show that:(1)The spatial distribution of rural land transfers shows a gradient change.(2)The trend of convergence in rural land transfers is robust,and disparities within regions play a key driven factor in the decline of total disparities.(3)Among the inner factors,the variables exert direct effects on their own regions,while the spillover effects are not obvious;As for outer factors,the direct and indirect effects generated by different variables are not occurring simultaneously.Under the background of"the division of the three rights of rural land",how to realize a moderate scale management of rural land,optimize the efficiency of spatial allocation of rural land and highlight incentive factors promoting the trade of rural land transfers are the core policy implications of this research.