基于Fine-Kinney与TODIM的地铁列车车门系统风险评估

Risk assessment of subway train door system based on Fine-Kinney and TODIM

为在评估地铁列车车门系统风险中考虑风险准则的交互作用和决策者的心理行为,提出基于Choquet积分与交互式多准则决策(TODIM)的Fine-Kinney风险评估模型。首先利用语言术语表征评估信息的不确定性,构建离差最大化模型以确定决策者权重,并采用区间二元语义加权平均算子建立综合决策矩阵;其次基于相似度计算风险准则,综合Choquet积分和TODIM法导出危险事件优先序;然后以地铁列车车门系统的电气控制装置为例验证所构建模型的有效性;最后对风险准则重要性作灵敏度分析,并与TODIM法、逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)和ChoquetTOPSIS法作对比。结果表明:地铁列车车门系统的电子门控单元(EDCU)功能失效具有最高风险,EDCU插头松动具有最低风险;与其他方法相比,所构建模型能够描述风险准则的交互关系和决策者的心理行为。

In order to include interactive relationships between risk criteria and psychological behaviors of decision-makers into consideration for risk assessment of subway train door system,a Fine-Kinney risk assessment model based on Choquet integral and TODIM is proposed.Firstly,uncertainties of assessment information were characterized by linguistic terms,then a maximizing deviation model was established to determine weights of decision-makers and a comprehensive decision matrix was integrated by interval2-tuple weighted average operators.Secondly,importance of risk criteria was calculated based on similarity degree,and risk priority of hazardous events was derived by combing Choquet integral and TODIM approach.Thirdly,effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model were demonstrated with an example of electrical control device of subway train door system.Finally,sensitivity analysis for criteria importance was carried out and comparison was made between this model and three other methods including TODIM,TOPSIS,and Choquet-TODIM.The results indicate that failure of electronic door control unit(EDCU)function presents the highest risk while loose of EDCU plug makes the lowest one.Compared with other methods,this proposed model can effectively describe interaction between risk criteria and psychological behaviors of decision makers.