长江经济带旅游城市韧性时空演化及驱动因素研究

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Tourism City Resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

近年来,不确定性风险在全球范围内越来越多样化,提升旅游城市韧性成为旅游可持续发展的关键。本文在界定旅游城市韧性内涵的基础上,从经济韧性、社会韧性、生态韧性和基础设施韧性四个方面构建长江经济带旅游城市韧性评价指标体系,借助熵值法测度2011—2020年长江经济带旅游城市韧性,并使用核密度估计、空间自相关、空间冷热点和地理探测器探究长江经济带旅游城市韧性的时空演化及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2011—2020年长江经济带旅游城市韧性呈现“先升后降”的波动上升趋势,但旅游城市韧性值相对较小;上游、中游、下游与总体发展趋势保持一致,其中下游地区旅游城市韧性最高;长江经济带旅游城市韧性内部差异逐渐缩小,且存在多级分化现象。(2)长江经济带旅游城市韧性存在空间分异现象,高度韧性主要分布在下游地区;长江经济带各省份旅游城市韧性在空间上存在正相关关系,且关联程度逐步减弱,热点区和次热点区主要分布在下游地区,冷点区和次冷点区主要分布在上中游地区。(3)2011—2020年不同因素对长江经济带旅游城市韧性的影响程度存在一定的差别,经济韧性和基础设施韧性是影响长江经济带旅游城市韧性的主要因素。

In recent years,uncertain risks have become more and more diversified globally.The key to sustainable tourism development is to enhance Tourism City Resilience(TCR).On the basis of defining the connotation of TCR,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of TCR in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from four aspects:economic resilience,social resilience,ecological resilience and infrastructure resilience.The entropy method was used to measure the TCR in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020.Combined with kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation,spatial hot and cold spots and geographic detectors,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors are analyzed.The results showed that:(1)From 2011 to 2020,TCR in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a fluctuating upward trend of“First Rising and Then Falling”,but the value of TCR was relatively small.The upstream,middle and downstream regions were consistent with the overall development trend,and TCR in the downstream regions was the highest.The internal differences in the resilience of tourism cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have gradually narrowed,and there is a multi-level differentiation phenomenon.(2)TCR in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has spatial differentiation,with high resilience mainly distributed in the downstream areas.TCR in the provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a positive spatial correlation,and the correlation degree is gradually weakened.Hot spots and sub-hot spots are mainly distributed in the lower reaches,while cold spots and sub-cold spots are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches.(3)Different factors have different impacts on TCR in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020.Economic resilience and infrastructure resilience are high influencing factors for tourism city resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.