城市化和老龄化对城乡居民消费差距影响研究——理论模型与实证分析

Study on the Impact of Urbanization and Aging on the Consumption Gap Between Urban and Rural Residents:Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

建立反映城市化与老龄化的二阶段OLG模型,然后基于2001—2018年的省级面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型(SDM)对理论模型提出的假设进行了检验。研究结果表明,城市化和老龄化对城乡居民消费差距的影响存在空间溢出效应:城市化程度提高不仅有利于缩小本地的城乡消费差距,也有利于缩小邻近地区的城乡消费差距;老龄化程度的提高虽然会加大本地城乡消费差距,但有助于缩小邻近地区的消费差距。

A two-stage OLG model reflecting urbanization and aging is established,and based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2018,the hypotheses proposed by the theoretical model are tested by using the spatial dubin model(SDM).The results show that urbanization and aging have spatial spillover effects on the consumption gap between urban and rural residents.The progress of urbanization is not only beneficial to reducing the consumption gap between urban and rural areas,but also beneficial to reducing the consumption gap between urban and rural areas in neighboring areas.Although the increase of aging degree will aggravate the local urban-rural consumption gap,it will help reduce the consumption gap in neighboring areas.