中国财政支出对碳排放影响的双重效应分析

The Dual Effect of Fiscal Expenditure on Carbon Emissions in China

研究财政支出对碳排放的影响路径对实现绿色低碳发展意义重大。文章认为,财政支出不但会对碳排放产生直接影响,而且会通过城镇化、产业结构和对外贸易产生间接影响。以2000—2017年中国省际面板数据为样本,采用系统GMM方法分析财政支出对碳排放的直接与间接效应,并利用门槛模型检验影响路径的异质性特征。结果表明:财政支出与碳排放之间呈现先上升后下降的倒U型关系;财政支出在城镇化发展的不同阶段会对碳排放产生间接影响;无论是否有财政支出约束,第二产业占比和对外贸易开放度分别对二氧化碳排放具有显著的促进和抑制作用。

It is of great significance to explore the influence path of fiscal expenditure on carbon emissions to realize green and low-carbon development.This paper argues that fiscal expenditure not only has a direct impact on carbon emissions,but also has an indirect impact through urbanization,industrial structure and foreign trade.Taking the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2017 as samples,the paper analyzes the direct and indirect effects of fiscal expenditure on carbon emissions by using systematic GMM method,and the heterogeneity of influence path is tested by using the threshold model.The results show that there is an inverted u-shaped relationship between fiscal expenditure and carbon emissions.Fiscal expenditure has indirect impacts on carbon emissions in different stages of urbanization.Whether there are fiscal expenditure constraintsor not,the proportion of the secondary industry and the openness of foreign trade have significant promoting and inhibiting effects on carbon dioxide emissions.