城镇化减贫的空间溢出效应及门槛特征——基于贫困乡城转移背景

The Spatial Spillover Effect and the Threshold Characteristics of Urbanization and Poverty Reduction:Based on the Background of Rural-Urban Transfer in Poverty-stricken Areas

在贫困乡城转移的现实背景下,基于2000—2016年中国30个省份的省际面板数据,从城镇化的人口、就业和空间三个方面研究城镇化对农村和城市减贫的空间溢出效应和门槛效应。结果表明:城镇化对贫困减缓具有显著的积极影响,不同城镇化指标对贫困减贫的影响存在差异性。人口城镇化对农村减贫效应大于就业和空间城镇化的减贫效应,就业城镇化对城市减贫效应大于人口和空间城镇化的减贫效应。人口和就业城镇化不仅具有直接的减贫效应,还通过空间溢出效应对周边省份发挥间接减贫作用,且空间溢出效应在经济矩阵和嵌套矩阵中更为显著。城镇化对农村减贫效应存在基于经济发展水平的双门槛特征,经济发展水平跨过第一个门槛值而低于第二个门槛值时,城镇化发展对农村减贫的边际收益递增;当经济发展水平跨过第二个门槛值时,城镇化发展对农村减贫的边际收益递减。

Based on the background of urban transfer in poor rural areas and the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016,this paper studies the spatial spillover and threshold effects of urbanization on rural and urban poverty reduction from three aspects including population,employment and space of urbanization.The results show that urbanization has a significant positive impact on poverty alleviation,and different urbanization indicators have different impacts on poverty reduction.The effect of population urbanization on rural poverty reduction is greater than that of the employment and spatial urbanization,and the effect of employment urbanization on urban poverty reduction is greater than that of the population and spatial urbanization.Population and Employment urbanization not only have direct poverty reduction effects,but also exert indirect poverty reduction effects on surrounding provinces through spatial spillover effect,which is more significant in economic matrix and nested matrix.The effect of urbanization on rural poverty reduction has a double threshold feature based on the level of economic development.When the level of economic development goes across the first threshold but is lower than the second threshold,the marginal return of urbanization on rural poverty reduction increases;when the level of economic development goes across the second threshold,the marginal return of urbanization on rural poverty reduction decreases.