青海省碳中和路径及实现途径研究

Study on the Pathway and Strategy of Carbon Neutralization in Qinghai Province

运用2000~2019年青海省能源消费和牲畜养殖数据,分析了青海省历史碳排放变化情况,并基于可拓展的随机性环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型和社会经济发展数据,构建了未来碳排放的预测模型.在此基础上,结合国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)多模式的净生态系统生产力数据,对青海省在未来不同发展情景下的净碳排放量趋势进行了评估,确定了各情景下碳中和的发展路径.此外,分析了当前青海省能源利用状况和植被生长的主要限制因素,从减少碳排放量和增加碳汇两个角度对青海省碳中和的途径给出了针对性的建议.结果表明,青海省净碳排放量已于2018年达到峰值,若实行全面绿色发展政策,则有望在2037年实现净零排放.为实现这一目标,一方面,青海省应大力推进能源改革,提高电气化水平,进一步增加清洁能源消费占比;另一方面,青海省应采取针对性工程措施,降低水、光、热等气候因素特别是水分对当地植物生长效率的限制,增加生物固碳量.

The historical variation of anthropogenic carbon emissions in Qinghai Province was evaluated based on the energy consumption and livestock farming data from 2000 to 2019,and a predictive model of future carbon emissions was constructed using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology(STIRPAT)model based on the calculated historical carbon emission data and socioeconomic development data.Further,the future net carbon emissions in Qinghai Province under different development scenarios were predicted by combining the Net Ecosystem Production(NEP)data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Based on the prediction results,the current energy consumption situation and the main constraints on vegetation growth were analyzed and suggestions for carbon neutrality were provided from the perspective of both reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sink.The results show that the net carbon emissions in Qinghai Province have reached the peak in 2018.If a comprehensive green development policy is implemented,it is expected to achieve net-zero emissions by 2037 in Qinghai Province.To accomplish this goal,on the one hand,energy reformation should be promoted to raise the level of electrification and increase the proportion of clean energy consumption.On the other hand,in order to increase biological carbon sequestration,specific measures should be taken to reduce the constraints of water,temperature and radiation on the growth efficiency of local plants,especially the constraint of water.