中国居民消费结构变迁及其趋势——基于中美投入产出表的分析

Changes and Trends of Consumption Structure of Chinese Residents:Analysis Based on Sino-US Input-Output Tables

居民消费结构升级成为全社会广泛关注的问题。本文运用中国投入产出表数据,对居民消费结构变迁和趋势进行深入分析,并主要以1971—2017年中美两国投入产出表中的消费结构数据进行比较分析,从美国人均1万美元GDP时的消费结构及趋势来分析中国居民消费结构的升级方向和潜力。研究发现:(1)随着经济发展水平和收入水平的提升,我国居民消费支出保持快速增长的态势,但城镇居民消费增长幅度远大于农村居民的增长幅度。(2)1971年以来,美国第一产业消费支出占比变化不大,基本稳定在1.2%左右。与此同时,中国第一产业居民消费支出所占比重由1987年的36.6%下降到2017年的8.2%,年均下降0.7%。随着居民收入水平和消费能力的持续提高,我国第一产业的消费占比将进一步下降。(3)中美两国的第二产业消费占比都呈下降趋势,但中国处于高位下降,未来我国第二产业的消费占比将进一步下降。第二产业中的具体细分行业的变化趋势具有异质性。(4)中美两国第三产业居民消费支出所占比重都呈上升趋势,且中国的增长幅度远大于美国,但中国居民服务消费占消费支出的比重低于美国约10个百分点。未来,中国服务业的消费占比将进一步提升。

The upgrading of residents’ consumption structure has become a widespread concern. This paper uses the data of China’s input-output tables over the years to analyze the changes and development trends of China’s residents’ consumption structure. The comparative analysis of the consumption structure data in the input-output tables of China and the United States from 1971 to 2017 analyzes the upgrade direction and potential of the consumption structure of Chinese residents from the consumption structure and trend at the per capita GDP of US $ 10,000. It is found that:(1) With the increase of the level of economic development and income, the consumption expenditure of Chinese residents has maintained a rapid growth trend. However, the growth rate of urban residents’ consumption is much larger than that of rural residents.(2) Since 1971, the share of consumer spending in the primary industry in the United States has not changed much, basically stable at 1.2%. At the same time, the proportion of China’s consumer spending on the primary industry dropped from 36.6% in 1997 to 8.2%in 2017, with an average annual decline of 0.7%. With the continuous improvement of residents’ income level and consumption capacity, the proportion of China’s primary industry consumption will further decline.(3) The proportion of consumption of the secondary industry in both China and the United States has shown a downward trend, but China has fallen at a high level. In the future, the proportion of consumption of the secondary industry in China will further decline. However, the trends of subdivided sectors in the secondary industry are heterogeneous.(4) The proportions of consumer spending on the tertiary industry in both China and the United States are increasing, and China’s growth rate is much larger than that in the United States, but the proportion of Chinese residents’ service consumption in consumer spending is lower than the United States by about 10%. With the development of China’s economy, the proportion of China’s service industry consumption will further increase.