挤出效应还是鲶鱼效应:金融科技对传统普惠金融影响研究

Crowding-out Effect or Catfish Effect:The Impact of Fintech on Traditional Inclusive Finance

金融科技给商业银行的传统普惠金融带来冲击的同时,也为其带来技术驱动创新的解决方案。本文利用2011—2016年全国31个省份的经济金融面板数据,采用迭代GMM回归方法实证分析金融科技对于传统普惠金融的影响。结果显示,金融科技通过产业竞争机制和技术溢出机制对传统普惠金融产生显著影响。其中,金融科技催生的数字普惠金融通过产业竞争机制给传统普惠金融带来"挤出"效应,不利于传统普惠金融发展。而金融科技又会通过技术溢出机制影响银行业竞争,进而给传统普惠金融带来"鲶鱼效应",有效促进传统普惠金融发展。随着银行业竞争的增强,金融科技对于传统普惠金融的"鲶鱼效应"逐步减弱。此外,金融科技显著影响传统普惠金融的覆盖率水平,但是对于其实际使用情况的影响并不显著。研究结论对于商业银行如何运用金融科技突破传统普惠金融发展的"现实困境"具有重要意义。

Fintech brings impact to traditional inclusive finance,meanwhile it also brings solutions to technology-driven innovation.Based on the economic and financial provincial panel data of2011—2016,this paper empirically studies the impact of fintech on traditional inclusive finance,using iterative GMM regression method.The results show that fintech has significant impact on traditional inclusive finance through industrial competition mechanism and technology spillover mechanism.Digital inclusive finance promoted by fintech brings"crowding-out effect"to traditional inclusive finance through industrial competition mechanism,which is not conducive to traditional inclusive finance development.While fintech influences banking competition through technology spillover mechanism,which brings"catfish effect"to traditional inclusive finance and effectively promotes traditional inclusive finance development.With the intensifying of banking competition,the catfish effect of fintech is gradually weakening.In addition,fintech has significant impact on the coverage of traditional inclusive finance,but the impact on its usage is not significant.The conclusions have great significance for commercial banks,which is to use fintech to break through the"realistic dilemma"of traditional inclusive financial development.