我国体育产业与国民经济共生行为模式实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Sports Industry and National Economy Symbiotic Behavior Model

运用文献资料法、数理统计法、VAR模型等方法,以共生理论为基础,基于我国体育产业增加值和国内生产总值等统计指标,对我国体育产业与国民经济共生行为模式进行分析。研究认为,体育产业与国民经济共生行为模式主要分为寄生、偏利共生、非对称性互惠共生与对称性互惠共生等4种,共生行为模式演化主要经历从寄生、偏离共生到非对称性互惠共生,再到对称性互惠共生的过程。协整检验显示,我国体育产业与国民经济之间存在2个协整关系,共生行为模式为"非对称性互惠共生"。方差分解显示,两者在不同时期相互之间的方差贡献率不相同,对彼此的影响呈现出"非对称性"。最后提出共生发展优化路径:整合共生单元,促进产业集群;创优共生环境,形成和谐生态;升级共生模式,优化共生效益;完善共生机制,维持共生秩序。研究旨在促进我国体育产业与国民经济共生效益不断提高。

Using the methods of literature, mathematical statistics and VAR model, based on the statistical data of national economy and sports industry development, analysis was made of the symbiotic behavior model between industry and national economy.Results show that the model of symbiosis between sports industry and national economy is mainly divided into such four categories as "parasitic, pro-growth symbiosis, asymmetric mutualism and symbiosis".The evolution of the symbiotic behavior pattern mainly experiences from parasitic, deviating symbiosis to asymmetry, and then to symmetrically mutualistic symbiosis.There are two cointegration relationships between China’s sports industry and the national economy.The model of symbiosis is in a state of "asymmetric reciprocity".It shows that the "asymmetrical mutualism" behavior pattern is more stable.Pulse response analysis shows that the cumulative response of endogenous variables such as lnGDP, lnTYC and other endogenous variables to a standard deviation impact is gradually increasing.The variance decomposition shows that the variance contribution rate of them is different in different periods, and the influence of each other is asymmetrical.Finally, the article puts forward the way to promote the symbiotic development of national economy and sports industry.