产业链变迁如何影响跨境资本流动——基于高科技出口产品的竞争力分析

How Does Industrial Chain Change Effect Cross-Border Capital Flows:Based on the Competitiveness Analysis of High-Tech Export Products

跨境资本流动受国内和国际两方面因素的影响,产业链变迁作为国内因素的重要方面,会对跨境资本流动产生重要影响。本文以高科技出口产品为例,基于2007-2019年全球30个经济体年度数据,分析一国产业链变迁对该国跨境资本流动的影响,结论是:(1)一国高科技产品的出口复杂度、贸易竞争力指数与跨境资本流动波动情况呈反相关关系;(2)跨境资本流动的波动程度具有一定的惯性。结合“双循环”发展新格局,本文提出四方面政策建议。

Cross-border capital flows are affected by both domestic and international factors,and industrial chain changes,as an important aspect of domestic factors,will have an important impact on cross-border capital flows.Based on the annual data of 30 global economies from 2007 to 2020,this paper takes high-tech export products as an example to analyze the impact of a country’s industrial chain changes on its cross-border capital flow situation.The results show that:(1)the export complexity and trade competitiveness index of a country’s high-tech products are inversely correlated with the fluctuation of cross-border capital flows;(2)The fluctuation degree of cross-border capital flow has certain inertia.According to the conclusion,combining with the new pattern of Domestic and international dual circulation development,four policy suggestions are put forward.