住房资产、债务与家庭消费

Housing Assets,Debt and Household Consumption

由于住房资产与负债相互影响,住房资产的变动对消费的影响并不明确。本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2017和2019年两期数据,以有房家庭为样本,对住房资产、住房债务与家庭消费的关系进行研究。总体来看,住房财富能够显著促进家庭消费支出,对消费升级也有促进作用,而住房债务则显著抑制了家庭消费的增长和消费升级,而且不存在住房债务对家庭消费的门槛效应。交乘项回归系数表明,住房债务对住房财富效应有不确定影响,具体而言,住房债务削弱了住房财富对消费支出的效应,但是却扩大了住房财富对消费升级的影响。异质性分析表明,住房财富与债务对首套房家庭消费的影响要大于多套房家庭,对食品、衣物以及交通通讯支出的影响显著;从消费升级角度看,住房财富对家庭消费升级的影响显著,而住房债务仅对城镇家庭消费升级影响明显。政策启示是:稳定家庭杠杆率、释放住房财富流动性、优化差异性信贷政策。

There is an internal relationship between housing assets and liabilities,which results in the impact of changes in housing assets and liabilities on consumption is not clear.Based on the unbalanced panel data of CHFS in 2017 and 2019,we analyze the impact of housing assets and housing debt on household consumption expenditure.We find tha t housing wealth can significantly promote household consumption expenditure and consumption upgrading,while housing debt significantly inhibits the growth and upgrading of household consumption,and there is no threshold effect of housing debt on household consumption.The cross-product regression coefficient shows that housing debt has an uncertain impact on the effect of housing wealth.Specifically,housing debt weakens the effect of housing wealth on consumption expenditure,but expands the impact of housing wealth on consumption upgrading.There are obvious differences in the impact of housing assets and debt on household consumption,that is,the impact on the only-one house households is greater than that on the multi-house households and the impact on food,clothing,transportation and communication expenditure is significant.The impact of housing assets on the consumption upgrading of households is significant,while the impact of housing debt only on the consumption upgrading of urban households is obvious.The policy implications include stabilizing household leverage,releasing housing wealth liquidity and optimizing differentiated credit policies.