分权对地方政府债务的非线性影响研究

Research on the Nonlinear Impact of Decentralization on Local Government Debt

本文将财政分权、金融分权和地方政府债务纳入到内生增长模型中,通过模型求解和数值模拟发现,分权对地方政府债务呈现出正U型的关系。利用2005-2018年除西藏外30个省市的面板数据进行回归,结果显示分权对地方政府债务表现出显著的非线性关系。利用不同的分权指标重新进行回归,结果显示基准回归结果是稳健的。分位数回归结果显示,分权对地方政府债务的正U型关系在不同的地方政府债务水平上会出现轻微的变化。

We incorporate fiscal decentralization,financial decentralization and local government debt into the endogenous growth model.Through solving and numerical simulation,we found that fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization have a positive U-shaped relationship with local government debt.Subsequently,we use the panel data of 30 provinces and cities except Tibet from 2004 to 2017 to perform regression.The results show that fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization have a positive U-shaped nonlinear relationship to local government debt.Re-regression using different decentralized indicators,the results show that the benchmark regression results are robust.Quantile regression results show that the positive U-shaped relationship between decentralization and local government debt will change slightly at different levels of local government debt.