房价异常波动是否演变为系统性金融风险?

Whether The Abnormal Fluctuation of House Prices Transmutes Into Systemic Financial Risk

自2003年房地产市场化改革以来,我国房价已经历了5次异常波动。研究表明,房价快速上涨致使房地产升值的财富效应通过投资与融资两大渠道以及政府债务链导致整个金融系统资源配置过度房地产化,并通过挤出效应、流动性效应、杠杆效应在金融体系各子系统间形成风险的累积、扩散与放大,最终演变为系统性金融风险。本文运用独立性权系数法编制系统性金融风险综合指数,并采用VAR模型、格兰杰因果检验和协整检验证实了房价异常波动会通过资产配置房地产化演变为系统性金融风险。

Since the real estate market reform in 2003, China’s housing prices have experienced five abnormal fluctuations. The research shows that the wealth effect of real estate caused by the rapid rise of house prices lead the resource allocation in the entire financial system excessively to the real estate through the two major channels of investment and financing and the government debt chain, and forms the accumulation, diffusion and amplification of risks among various subsystems of the financial system through the crowding out effect, liquidity effect and leverage effect, which finally evolves into a systemic financial risk. This paper uses the independent weight coefficient method to compile a comprehensive index, adopts the VAR model, granger causality test and co-integration test to confirm that the abnormal fluctuation of housing prices will transmute into systemic financial risk through asset allocation of real estate.