新中国地方财政支出的空间关联及其解释——基于复杂网络分析方法

Spatial Correlation and Interpretation of Local Fiscal Expenditure in New China——Based on Complex Network Analysis Method

本文测度了我国29个省(区、市)全阶段(1949-2018年)和分阶段(1949-1978年、1979-2018年)的人均财政支出空间关联关系,并采用复杂网络和QAP方法分析了地方财政支出空间关联网络的拓扑特征及其影响因素。结果发现:①1949-2018年间我国地方财政支出空间关联网络共存在266条关系,且在财政分权改革后(1979-2018年)我国地方财政支出空间关联网络关系数逐渐增加,稳定性逐渐增强,节点相互影响范围越来越大;东部省份在网络中的中心地位明显,但部分中西部省份在网络中起的"桥梁"作用越来越大。②我国地方财政支出空间关联网络中的成员可分为"标杆""经纪人"和"追随者"三个稳定社团,其网络模块度不断下降,不同社团成员"联系"越来越紧密;同时,地方财政支出空间关联Top1网络呈现出由"链状"向"星状"格局演化,北京、上海和江苏稳定处于核心地位。③我国地方财政支出空间关联网络表现出"邻里互动""门当户对"和"俱乐部集团"特征,该特征在分权改革后更加凸显。并且地理相邻以及经济发展水平、经济调控能力和经济发展方式的相似可解释全阶段和两个分阶段70.4%、62.1%和76.7%的财政支出空间关联。

This paper measures the spatial correlation of per capita fiscal expenditure of 29 provinces in the whole stage(1949-2018)and stages(1949-1978,1979-2018)of China,and analyzes the topological characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial correlation network of local fiscal expenditure by using complex network and QAP method.The results show that:1)from 1949 to 2018,there are 266 relationships in the spatial correlation network of local fiscal expenditure in China,and after the reform of fiscal decentralization(1979-2018),the number of relationships in the spatial correlation network gradually increased,the stability gradually enhanced,and the scope of node interaction growing;the eastern provinces play an important role in the network,but some central and western provinces are playing a more and more important connecting role in the network.2)The members of the spatial correlation network of local fiscal expenditure in China can be divided into three stable clubs:"benchmark","broker"and"follower",but the modularity of the network is declining and the members of different clubs are more and more closely connected;furthermore,the top1 network of local fiscal expenditure spatial correlation has evolved from"chain"to"star",and Beijing,Shanghai and Jiangsu are in the core position.3)The spatial correlation network of local fiscal expenditure in China shows the characteristics of"neighborhood interaction","matching families"and"club group",which are more prominent after the fiscal decentralization reform.Moreover,geographical proximity and the similarity in economic development level,economic regulation ability and economic development mode can explain the spatial correlation of fiscal expenditure of 70.4%,62.1%and 76.7%in the whole stage and two stages.