基于迁徙指数的复工时期中山市新冠肺炎疫情防控风险评估与应对

Risk assessment of and response to COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in Zhongshan city based on migration index during the period of returning to work

目的分析中山市新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情进展情况,评估中山市新冠肺炎的疫情输入风险。方法获取截至2020年2月29日24时全国新冠肺炎报告病例数(不含临床诊断病例;不含中国香港、澳门和台湾数据)和百度迁徙指数,对省外各市2月29日之前累计7 d报告病例数和中山市迁入指数进行相关分析,评估中山市返程复工期间新冠肺炎疫情输入风险。结果中山市累计报告确诊病例66例,输入性病例占比87.88%,其中湖北省49例,占74.24%。疫情输入风险排前4位的省份是广西、四川、湖南和江西,累计输入风险指数分别为1.0820、0.5494、0.2041和0.0656。近7 d中山市迁入人口排前11位主要城市中,有疫情输入风险的城市:永州市、重庆市。结论中山市的新冠肺炎疫情主要由湖北输入引起,目前疫情防控工作取得阶段性效果,防止周边及疫情高发地区的病例输入风险仍是中山市今后疫情防控工作的重点。

Objective To analyze the situation of epidemic progress of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Zhongshan city,and to evaluate the imported case risk of COVID-19 in Zhongshan city.Methods We collected data about the reported COVID-19 cases in China(excluding clinically diagnosed cases and the data about Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)and Baidu Migration Index as of February 29,2020,performed a correlation analysis between the cumulative numbers of reported cases in cities outside Guangdong province in 7 days before February 29 and the Migration Index of Zhongshan city,and evaluated the imported risk of COVID-19 in Zhongshan city during the period of returning to work.Results Sixty-six confirmed cases were reported cumulatively in Zhongshan city.The proportion of imported cases was 87.88%,and cases from Hubei province accounted for 74.24%(49/66).Guangxi province,Sichuan province,Hunan province and Jiangxi province ranked the top four in terms of cumulative imported risk,with the cumulative risk indexes of 1.0820,0.5494,0.2041 and 0.0656,respectively.Among the top eleven main cities with population migration to Zhongshan city within the 7 days,Yongzhou city and Chongqing city ranked the top two in terms of cumulative imported risk.Conclusions COVID-19 epidemic in Zhongshan city was mainly caused by the importation of Hubei province.The epidemic prevention and control work has achieved phased results at the moment.To prevent the imported risk of cases from surrounding areas and high epidemic areas will still the focus of the epidemic prevention and control work in Zhongshan city.