中国油气供需结构研究综述

A comprehensive review of the supply and demand structure of China's oil and gas

在双碳目标的约束下,中国油气行业将迎来深刻变革。本文梳理了近期对中国油气行业供需结构的研究成果,结果表明:1)化工用油将快速增长,但难以弥补燃料用油的下降,石油消费将在2030年前达峰;2)天然气消费有望突破6000亿m^(3),但达峰后下降路径分歧较大;3)原油产量已进入平台期,天然气产量峰值高于3000亿m^(3),具有突破4000亿m^(3)的潜力;4)在较长时间内中国油气消费缺口仍需大量进口来填补。研究认为,未来中国油气行业面临产量稳产增产难度大、进口风险敞口依然较高、转型任务艰巨等挑战,并提出加大储量动用政策支持力度,持续推动国内增储上产;优化行业转型路径,谨防资产搁浅风险;推动产业转型升级,助力行业高质量发展等相关建议。

Under the constraints of the carbon peaking and neutrality goal,oil and gas production,supply,and consumption will be significantly impacted.The review yields the following key findings:1)Demand for petrochemical oil is projected to experience rapid growth;however,it is unlikely to offset the decline in fuel oil consumption.Consequently,petroleum consumption is anticipated to reach its peak before the year 2030.2)The consumption of natural gas is expected to exceed 600 billion m^(3)/a;nevertheless,there exists a significant disparity in terms of the path of decline subsequent to reaching its peak.3)Crude oil production has currently reached a plateau;meanwhile,natural gas production holds the potential to peak at over 300 billion m^(3)/a and could potentially achieve a capacity of 400 billion m^(3)/a.4)In the long run,China will continue to heavily rely on substantial imports to bridge the oil and gas consumption gap.Based on the findings,China's oil and gas industry faces challenges,including difficulties in maintaining and increasing production levels,persistently high import risks,as well as the arduous task of transformation.Thus,we propose a series of recommendations:1)A more robust policy support that emphasizes the utilization of reserves and a sustained promotion of domestic exploration and production.2)Optimizing the industry's transformation trajectory to mitigate the potential risks associated with stranded assets.3)Facilitating industrial upgrade and transformation to ensure the achievement of high-quality industry development.