智能化发展、劳动力供给技能结构与技能溢价

Intelligent Development, Skill Structure of Labor Supply and Skill Premium

人工智能对异质性劳动力的非对称需求影响收入分配,任务模型中智能化通过替代效应、互补效应、生产率效应、创新效应影响技能溢价,劳动力供给技能结构对该影响效应具有调节作用,这构成了解释技能溢价的供需框架。基于中国2006—2015年省际数据研究发现,智能化水平每上升1%,技能溢价将上升0.084个单位。智能化通过增加对技能劳动力的需求提高技能溢价,劳动力供给技能结构则可调低该效应,二者之间的博弈使技能溢价产生波动。东部地区劳动力供给技能结构改变了智能化对技能溢价的正向作用,中部地区智能化提升技能溢价的作用较强,西部地区仍需要强化发展。研究表明,优化产业、教育和区域政策,有助于化解智能化发展带来的收入分配风险。

The asymmetric demands of artificial intelligence on heterogeneous labor force affects income distribution.In the task model,intelligence exerts an influence on skill premium through substitution effect,task complementary effect,productivity effect and innovation effect,where the skill structure of labor supply has a moderating effect.These have constituted the supply-demand framework to explain skill premium.Based on the inter-provincial data in China from 2006 to 2015,the research found that,skill premium would increase by 0.084 for the marginal 1%increase in the development of intelligent level.And intelligence had raised skill premium through increasing the demand of skilled labors,while the skill structure of labor supply may have weakened the effect,so the game between the two would produce the fluctuations of skill premium.In eastern regions,the skill structure of labor supply had changed the increasing effect of intelligence on skill premium.And in central regions,this increasing effect was stronger.But in western regions,this effect still need to be strengthened.The research had proved that,optimizing the policies of industry,education and regions was conducive to the risk mitigation of income distribution.