黑河流域1960-2015年气温时空变化特征

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Temperature in the Heihe River Basin During the Period 1960-2015

在全球气温升高的背景下,为了解黑河流域过去几十年的气温变化情况,选择黑河流域及周边20个气象站点1960—2015年的月平均资料,综合利用线性倾向率、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验、小波分析和样条函数等方法,分析了黑河流域1960—2015年不同时间尺度上平均气温的时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)黑河流域近56 a的逐年和各季节平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,在季节尺度上,冬季的增温幅度最大,秋季次之。(2)黑河流域年和秋、冬两季的最冷平均气温出现在20世纪60年代,而春、夏两季的最低值则出现在70年代。(3)黑河流域平均气温突变时间除春季发生在21世纪初,年和其他3季平均气温的突变则均发生在20世纪90年代。(4)在年际和季节尺度上,黑河流域的平均气温在26~32 a时间尺度上均发生了冷暖交替变化,除冬季气温变化的第一主周期为30 a外,年和其他3季的第一主周期均为29 a,且黑河流域的气温在未来几年还会持续升高。(5)除冬季外,黑河流域年和其他3季平均气温均随海拔升高而降低;且除冬季的马鬃山站外,其他时间各站点均增温显著(p<0.05)。就不同季节而言,冬季对增温趋势的贡献最大,其次为秋季。

In the context of rise of global temperatures,in order to understand the temperature changes in the Heihe River Basin over the past few decades,the monthly average data of 20 meteorological stations in and around the Heihe River Basin during the period 1960—2015 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of mean temperatures over different time scales in the Heihe River Basin from 1960 to 2015 by applying the methods of linear tendency rate,moving average,Mann-Kendall test,slidingt test,wavelet analysis and spline function.The results showed that:(1)the annual and the seasonal temperature of the Heihe River Basin showed the significant increase,on the seasonal scale,the temperature increase in winter was the largest,followed by the fall;(2)the annual average lowest temperature and the average lowest temperatures of,autumn and winter in the Heihe River Basin appeared in the 1960 s,while the average lowest temperatures of spring and summer appeared in the 1970 s;(3)the sudden changes in the average temperature of spring in the Heihe River Basin occurred in the early 21 st century,while the sudden changes in the annual average temperature and the sudden changes in the average temperatures of the other three seasons occurred in the 1990 s;(4)on the interannual and seasonal scales,the average temperature of the Heihe River Basin had alternated between the cold and the warm on the scale of 26~32 years;the first main period of annual temperature change and the first main period of temperature change of the other three seasons were 29 years except that the first main period of temperature change in winter was 30 years;the temperature in the Heihe River Basin will continue to rise in the next few years;(5)in addition to winter,the annual average temperature and the average temperatures of the other three seasons in the Heihe River Basin gradually decreased with increase of altitude except winter;the temperatures of the other stations increased significantly in other seasons(p<0.05)except the Mazongshan station around the Heihe River in winter;in terms of different seasons,winter contributed the most to the trend of warming,followed by autumn.