浑江流域降水特征分析

Analysis of precipitation characteristics in Hunjiang River Basin

利用浑江流域1953—2019年降水资料,采用克里金插值法、线性倾向回归、Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法分析了降水空间分布情况以及不同时段的降水量变化趋势、突变及周期变化规律。结果表明:浑江流域的降水量呈现出由东南向西北递减的趋势,春季降水呈现显著的上升速率且达到5.4 mm·(10a)^(-1),其他时段所呈现的上升趋势均未通过显著性检验;春季降水量突变最为明显,与多种趋势分析方法得到的结果相一致。在不同时间尺度的降水时域分布上,都存在多重时间周期的复杂嵌套现象,而且汛期降水与年均降水具有极高的相似性,均存在5 a、8 a、19 a左右的主周期,汛期降水周期变化对年均降水周期有明显影响。从降水以及气温的整体变化趋势可判断浑江流域整体有呈现暖湿化的迹象。

Based on the precipitation data of Hunjiang River Basin from 1953 to 2019,Kriging interpolation,linear trend regression and Mann Kendall trend test are used to analyze the spatial distribution of precipitation and the variation trend,abrupt change and periodic variation of precipitation in different periods.The results show that the precipitation of Hunjiang River Basin presents a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,except that the spring precipitation shows a significant upward trend and reaches 5.4 mm·(10 a)^(-1),the rising trend of other periods has not passed the significance test;the spring precipitation mutation is the most obvious,which is consistent with the results obtained by various trend analysis methods.In the temporal distribution of precipitation in different time scales,there is a complex nesting phenomenon of multiple time periods.Moreover,the precipitation in flood season is very similar to the average annual precipitation,and there are main periods of about 5 a,8 a and 19 a.The variation of precipitation cycle in flood season has a significant impact on the annual precipitation cycle.