高质量发展下区域“以水定人”研究——以宁夏回族自治区为例

Study on “basing population on water resource” under high-quality development——a case study of Ningxia Autonomous Region

水资源是支撑区域人口发展不可或缺的内生要素,水资源利用效率和不同承载标准的选择直接影响区域人口承载力。本文以宁夏回族自治区为例,分析高质量发展下区域"以水定人"的约束控制指导线。结果表明宁夏用水水平和经济发展与取水量之间关系紧密,呈现协同增长趋势;根据预估的用水效率和经济发展水平,在取耗水总量指标约束控制下,全区2035年可承载人口为680~1050万人;要实现区域高质量发展,达到人民富裕、环境宜居等目标,全区人口总量2035年须控制800万以内。本文研究方法可以为其他区域制定高质量发展下,人口规模控制指导线提供技术参考。

Water resources is an indispensable endogenous factor to support the development of regional population.The efficiency of water resources utilization and the choice of different carrying standards directly affect the carrying capacity of regional population.This paper takes the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as an example to analyze the constraint control guideline of"basing population development on water resource"for regional high-quality development.The results show that there is a close relationship between water use level,economic development and water intake,and there is a trend of synergistic growth;the region will have a population of 6.8 million to 10.5 million by 2035 under the constraint control of total water consumption index.To achieve high-quality development and meet the goals of high income and livable environment,the region’s total population must be controlled within 8 million by 2035.The research methods in this paper can provide technical reference for formulating population scale control guidelines under the high-quality development of other regions.