中国经济增长目标体系的特征及影响因素

The Characteristics of the Economic Growth Target System in China and Its Determinants

如果政府不是完全依据辖区经济实际情况独立制定增长目标,而是锚定其他政府制定的目标,各级、各地政府的增长目标之间就不是相互独立的,而是互动的,从而构成一个增长目标体系。本文基于1991-2016年国家、省级增长目标数据,采用混合截面全局向量自回归模型分析发现,各级、各地政府的增长目标确实形成了增长目标体系:国家增长目标调整1个百分点,省级增长目标随之平均调整1.35个百分点;中央对任何单个省级增长目标的调整没有显著反应;空间相近或发展水平相似的省份在增长目标上的互动更为显著。进一步研究发现,地方政府独立制定目标的能力越强,与其他地区的增长目标互动程度越低。

Economic growth targets are always set by governments at all levels and localities in China.When governments set their targets with reference to the targets set by other governments,rather than in accordance with the actual situation of their own jurisdictions,the targets are interactively dependent and constitute a growth target system.This paper investigates the characteristics of China’s growth target system within a unified framework by employing a mixed cross-sectional global vector autoregressive model,together with a dataset of national and provincial growth targets from 1991 to 2016.It notes that:1)when national growth target is adjusted by 1 percentage point,the provincial targets respond to this adjustment by 1.35 percentage points on average;2)the national target does not respond to any single provincial growth target;and 3)provinces with a closer geographic location or similar development level have more significant interactions in terms of growth targets.Further research shows that when governments are more competent in setting growth targets independently,the interaction degree between targets is reduced.