中国沿海地区省域经济发展与海洋环境污染关系的EKC模型检验

EKC Framework Analysis of Relationship Between Provincial Economic Development and Marine Environmental Pollution in Coastal Areas of China

选取中国沿海11个省(市、区)2001-2016年的人均国民生产总值(PGDP)和人均海洋生产总值(PGOP)为经济指标,近岸海域劣于三类水质面积比重(E)为环境污染指标,检验沿海地区整体和11个省(市、区)海洋环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)存在的可能性和形态。结果表明:(1)沿海地区整体存在海洋EKC曲线,且以PGDP为经济指标的拟合曲线呈"U型",以PGOP为经济指标的拟合曲线呈"单调递减型"。(2)沿海11个省(市、区)仅有山东、上海、广东3省(市)存在海洋EKC曲线,且形态有所差异。(3)不同指标选择和不同时段数据都会对海洋EKC曲线的存在性和形态产生影响。该研究拓展了EKC模型在海洋经济与生态环境关系的研究视角,研究结论可为促进陆域经济开发与海洋生态环境保护协调发展的策略制定提供现实参考。

The per capita GDP(PGDP)and per capita Marine GDP(PGOP)of 11 coastal provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2001 to 2016 were selected as the economic indicators.The probability and form of the existence of the cubic environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of China’s coastal areas and 11 provinces(cities)are examined by taking the proportion of the area in coastal areas with water quality worse than ClassⅢas environmental pollution indicators.The results indicate that:(1)The relationship between economic development and marine environmental pollution in coastal areas conforms to the EKC curve,and the fitting curve with GDP per capita as economic index is"U-shape",and the fitting curve with GOP per capita as economic index is in"monotonically decreasing shape".(2)Only 3 provinces(cities)of Shandong,Shanghai and Guangdong conform to the EKC curve and have some morphological differences.Further studies show that the existence and shape of ocean EKC curves are affected by the selection of different indexes and the data of different periods.This study broadens the perspective of EKC model in the study of the relationship between marine economy and ecological environment,and the conclusions can provide practical reference for promoting the coordination strategy of land economic development and marine ecological environment protection.