“第二次人口红利”与经济增长:理论渊源、作用机制与数值模拟

The Second Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth:Theories,Mechanisms,and Simulations

在系统梳理"第二次人口红利"理论渊源的基础上,剖析其内在作用机制,基于双重资本深化的视角对中国的"第二次人口红利"进行重新审视和预判,运用理论模型和数值方法进行模拟分析。研究发现:"第二次人口红利"的内在驱动机制主要源自"人口预期红利"和"人口质量红利"的持续作用;适度的老龄化有助于"人口预期红利"的形成,适度的低生育率同样有利于"人口质量红利"的延续;由"人口预期红利"和"人口质量红利"所引发的双重资本深化效应将会对经济增长产生强有力的推动作用,而过度的老龄化和过低的生育率都会削弱这样的促进作用。因此,现阶段需要实施相应的人口经济政策来保障中国能够成功收获"第二次人口红利"。

This article systemically reviews the"Second Demographic Dividend"theories and dissects the inner functional mechanisms.Base on the perspective of dual capital deepening,we reexamine and predict the"Second Demographic Dividend".We use the theoretical model and numerical method to do the simulation analysis.The study finds that the inner driving mechanism of the"Second Demographic Dividend"roots in the sustaining action of the"Demographic Prospective Dividend"and the"Demographic Quality Dividend".The moderate ageing and low birth rate of our country can help form the"Demographic Prospective Dividend"and lengthen the"Quantity-Quality substitution".The"Demographic Prospective Dividend"and the"Demographic Quality Dividend"can strongly promote economic growth by the dual capital deepening.The numerical modeling suggests that the excessive high ageing rate and excessive low birth rate can weaken this effect farther.So we should put the appropriate population and economic policies into effect to ensure the achievement of the"Second Demographic Dividend"by our country.