基于集对分析法的珠三角气候变化研究

Research on Climate Change in the Pearl River Delta Based on Set Pair Analysis

集对分析法是一种基于同异反联系度的模糊分类方法。本文通过构建气候变化特征分类评价的指标,以城市化发展迅速的珠三角地区为例,采用集对分析法对该地区的气候进行模糊分类。基于集对分析的方法对气候变化不同阶段的整体特征以及气候变化过程中的主导因子及其可能影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:1970—2017年气候变化整体特征受到各气候要素共同影响,其中大部分年份气候整体特征较温和;较气候平均类型偏高的年份在上世纪七八十年代出现较多,主要受到气压和相对湿度的影响;较气候平均类型偏低的年份主要集中在近十几年,主要受到风速和气压的影响,这可能是城市化过程中下垫面和大气环境的变化引起的。

Set pair analysis is a fuzzy classification method based on the same,different and opposite degree of connection.The research establishes the indicators for the classification of climate change characteristics,taking the Pearl River Delta region as an example,using the set pair analysis method to classify the climate of the region to reflect the regional climate change.Based on the method of set pair analysis,the characteristics of different stages of climate change and the dominant factors in climate change process and their possible influencing factors are analyzed.The result shows that various climatic factors influence the characteristics of climate during 1970—2017 years.In most years during the study period,the characteristics of climate are milder.The years with higher than average types appear in the 1970s and 1980s,mainly due to the high air pressure and relative humidity.The years with lower climatic average types are mainly appear in the past ten years,affected by wind speed and air pressure,which may relate to the change of the underlying surface and the atmospheric environment during the urbanization process.