基于CVaR的灵活综合能源系统随机调度优化模型

Stochastic Scheduling Model for Flexible Integrated Energy System Based on CVaR

综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)可以满足园区冷、热、电等多种能源互补的需求,实现多能耦合,进一步提升能源的利用效率。但伴随光伏和风电等可再生能源发电设备的广泛接入,其不确定性和间歇性使得综合能源系统供给灵活性降低、运行风险增大,不能有效提升可再生能源的使用效率。以系统运行成本、碳排放惩罚成本最小为目标,分析了冷热电联供对系统运行效率的影响,同时引入模糊C均值-聚类综合质量法(FCM-CCQ)对风电及光伏的出力场景进行聚类分析,运用条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论对系统运行风险进行控制。通过算例分析表明,综合能源系统传统运行模式、热电解耦运行模式、冷热电解耦运行模式的CO2排放依次降低,且系统灵活性得到较大提高,系统运行的经济性得到提升。

An integrated energy system can meet the complementary requirements of various energy sources,such as cooling,heat,and electricity,in industrial parks.In addition,it can realize multi-energy coupling and further improve the utilization efficiency of energy.However,with the extensive integration of renewable energy sources generation equipment,such as photovoltaic technology and wind power,the uncertainty and intermittency of renewable energy generation has decreased the supply flexibility of comprehensive energy systems and increased operation risk.Hence,the efficiency of renewable energy generation cannot be effectively improved.This work analyzes the influence of cooling,heat,and electricity on the efficiency of an integrated energy system with the aim of reducing system operation cost and carbon emissions.In addition,it introduces the fuzzy c-means-clustering comprehensive quality method to carry out the cluster analysis of wind power and photovoltaic output scenarios and the conditional value at risk theory to control system operation risk.A numerical example shows that the carbon dioxide emission of the integrated energy system is successively decreased in the conventional operation mode,heat-electricity decoupling operation mode,and cooling-heat-electricity decoupling operation mode.Furthermore,the efficiency of energy utilization in the system is considerably improved.