大变局下基于模型的战略科技情报分析方法工具及典型业务实践

Model-based Strategic S&T Intelligence Analysis Methodology Tools under the Big Change and Typical Business Practice

在百年未有之大变局下,大国博弈驱动战略科技情报工作呈现出新的特征:使命任务向支撑领导者的战略决策优势聚焦,资源建设向全源情报拓展,业务形态和专业能力高动态演化,情报传播与服务自主化;新兴技术驱动了战略科技情报能力的整体跃升,大幅拓宽了分析研究的战略视野,提升了对多源异构情报的自动搜集与快捷处理能力,催生了智能化的情报共享与利用。战略科技情报工作要满足大变局下大国博弈致胜的需求,就需要加强自主的理论方法创新,面向业务实践推进模型构建和工具开发。基于模型的情报分析方法工具具有增强情报推理的逻辑、清晰解释情报行为、精准认识复杂情报现象、提高情报预见可靠性、便利情报共享与业务协同协作等重要功能,是培育智能情报新生态的基石。大变局下战略科技情报领域高频度、高强度、全行业的研究与服务实践,给再谋划和创新性开发战略科技情报分析的方法工具提供了不容错过的机遇。基于概念模型、实体模型等,开发一线人员可用性强的简单工具要优于多要素多层阶复杂算法的理论性建构。基于体系工程和复杂系统理论方法、战略管理模型二次开发、围绕研究目标的要素和结构、常用的基本业务构成和结构簇等情报分析模型和方法工具,由于较好地契合了当前战略科技情报业务的实际需要,适用性较强。考虑到可推广性,文章从案例背景、模型与工具、分析结果示意、案例成效4个维度介绍了战略科技情报分析方法工具应用案例,分别涵盖大国先进技术群发展、战略科技未来方向研判、战略科技新质力量解析、战略科技创新实体综合实力等典型业务的情报分析。展望未来,大变局下战略科技情报业务的创新变革将加速推进,自主理论方法创新和战略科技情报的系统基模建构、海量信息标记和防篡改技术发展、模型和工具的标准化和运用的规范化、以模型和工具在有限边界的业务场景中使用的案例数据支撑智能情报新生态培育等是重要的演化方向。

Under the unprecedented changes of the century,strategic scientific and technological intelligence work has taken on new characteristics driven by the game of great powers:the mission is focused on supporting the strategic decision-making advantages of leaders,the resource construction is expanded to all-source intelligence,the business form and professional capabilities are highly dynamic and evolve,and the intelligence dissemination and services are autonomous;emerging technologies drive the overall leap in strategic scientific and technological intelligence capabilities,significantly broadening the strategic vision of analysis and research,improving the ability to automatically collect and quickly process multi-source heterogeneous intelligence,and giving rise to intelligent intelligence sharing and utilization.In order to meet the needs of winning the game of great powers under the big change,strategic scientific and technological intelligence work needs to strengthen independent theoretical and methodological innovation,and promote model construction and tool development for business practice.The model-based intelligence analysis methodology tools have important functions,such as enhancing the logic of intelligence reasoning,clearly explaining intelligence behaviors,accurately understanding complex intelligence phenomena,improving the reliability of intelligence foresight,facilitating intelligence sharing and business collaboration,which can be considered as the cornerstones of cultivating a new ecology of intelligent intelligence.The high-frequency,high-intensity and industry-wide research and service practice in the field of strategic scientific and technological intelligence under the big change provides a not-to-be-missed opportunity for re-planning and innovative development of methodological tools for strategic scientific and technological intelligence analysis.Based on conceptual models,entity models,etc.,it is better to develop simple tools with strong usability for front-line personnel than theoretical construction of multi-element multi-layer order complex algorithms.Intelligence analysis models and methodological tools based on systems engineering and complex systems theoretical approaches,secondary development of strategic management models,elements and structures around research objectives,common basic business components and structural clusters,etc.are more applicable because they better fit the actual needs of current strategic scientific and technical intelligence operations.Considering the generalizability,this paper introduces the application cases of strategic science and technology intelligence analysis methods and tools in four dimensions,i.e.case background,models and tools,schematic analysis results,and case effectiveness,covering intelligence analysis of typical businesses such as development of advanced technology clusters in large countries,research and judgment of future directions of strategic science and technology,analysis of new qualitative forces of strategic science and technology,and comprehensive strength of strategic science and technology innovation entities,respectively.Looking into the future,the innovation and change of strategic science and technology intelligence business will be accelerated under the big change,and the innovation of independent theory and method and the construction of systems archetpes of strategic science and technology intelligence,the development of massive information marking and antitampering technology,the standardization of models and tools and the standardization of their application,and the cultivation of new ecology of intelligent intelligence supported by case data of models and tools used in business scenarios with limited boundaries are important evolutionary directions.