摘要
应用Morlet小波分析等气候诊断方法,对阜新地区近69年气温变化进行分析,结果表明:(1)从线性趋势分析得出,阜新市近69年各类气温(除气温年较差外)都呈现出上升趋势。(2)在周期分布上,平均最低气温和极端最低气温的第一主周期在69年以上,第二主周期呈现20~25 a的振荡周期。而其它气温的第一主周期为18~26 a。(3)从突变检验分析得出,20世纪50年代气温年较差和极端最低气温均出现了突变点;21世纪20年代气温又呈现出激烈的震荡,极端最高气温和极端最低气温在此期间均出现了不止一个突变点。(4)在未来趋势上,由Hurst指数分析得出,未来气温变化趋势并不明显。
By using morlet wavelet analysis and other climate diagnostic methods,we analyze the temperature in Fuxin area in recent 69 years.The results show that:(1)From the linear trend analysis,all the air temperature(except the annual temperature difference)in Fuxin in recent 69 years show an upward trend.(2)In the periodic distribution,the first main cycle of the mean minimum temperature and the extreme minimum temperature is more than 69 years,and the second main cycle takes on an oscillation period of 20—25 years.The first major cycle of other temperatures is between 18 and 26 years.(3)From the analysis of abrupt change test,the sudden change point appeared in the annual temperature range and the extreme minimum temperature in the 1950s.(4)According to the Hurst Index analysis,the trend of temperature change in the future is not obvious.
作者
舒海燕
杨晓彤
王忠宝
Shu Haiyan;Yang Xiaotong;Wang Zhongbao(Fuxin Meteorological Bureau,Liaoning Fuxin 123000;Liaoning University of engineering and technology,Liaoning Fuxin 123000)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2021年第6期16-21,共6页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
基金
2018年辽宁省气象局科研课题(BA201803)
