PM_(2.5)、PM10短期暴露与流感样病例日门诊量的关联研究

Correlation between short-term exposure of PM,PM and daily outpatient number of influenza-like illness

目的:分析连云港市PM2.5、PM10质量浓度对流感样病例日门诊量的短期影响。方法:收集2014—2016年连云港市大气污染物日均数浓度、同期气象参数资料以及8家监测医院的流感样病例日门诊量,采用广义相加模型分析PM2.5、PMPM10对流感样病例日门诊量的影响以及剂量效应关系。结果:单污染物模型显示,在最佳滞后条件下,PM2.5或PMPM10每升高1个四分位间距值,流感样病例日门诊量分别增加2.3%(RR=1.023,95%CI:1.017~1.035)和3.8%(RR=1.038,95%CI:1.025~1.051)。双污染物及多污染物模型显示,校正混杂因素后,PM2.5、PM10与流感样病例日门诊量仍呈正关联。剂量效应关系显示,在低浓度时,随着PM2.5、PM10的增加,流感样病例发生风险逐步升高。但当PM2.5、PM10分别升高到50、100μg/m3之后,流感样病例发生风险趋于稳定。结论:PM2.5、PM10质量浓度的增加可使流感样病例日门诊量升高,并且存在剂量效应。

Objective:This study aims to analyze the short-term effect of PM2.5 and PM10 concentration on daily outpatient visits of influenza-like illness(ILI)in Lianyungang.Methods:The daily mean concentration of air pollutants,meteorological parameters and daily outpatient visits of ILI in 8 monitoring hospitals in Lianyungang from 2014 to 2016 were collected.The effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on daily outpatient visits of ILI and exposure-response relations were analyzed by generalized additive model.Results:The single pollutant model showed that the daily outpatient visits of ILI increased by 2.3%(RR=1.023,95%CI=1.017-1.035)and 3.8%(RR=1.038,95%CI=1.025-1.051)respectively for each quartile interval of PM2.5 and PM10 under the optimal lag condition.Dual-pollutant and multi-pollutant models showed that PM2.5 and PM10 were positively correlated with daily outpatient visits of ILI after correction of confounding factors.Exposure-response relations showed that the risk of ILI increased gradually with the increase of PM2.5 and PM10 at low concentrations.However,when PM2.5 and PM10 increased to about 50μg/m3 and 100μg/m3 respectively,the risk of ILI tended to stabilize.Conclusion:The increase of PM2.5 and PM10 concentration can increase the daily outpatient visits of ILI,and there is exposureresponse relation.