新中国农业结构变迁70年:历史演进与经验总结

Agricultural Structure Change of New China in the Past 70 Years:Historical Evolution and Experience Summary

文章利用经济结构变迁的内生驱动理论机制,构建了一个关于开放条件下农业结构变迁的一般分析框架,并从经验层面回顾了新中国70年农业结构变迁的历史背景、基本特征和所取得的成绩。分析发现,中国农业结构变迁趋势符合结构变迁的一般规律,并且农业结构变迁呈现出明显的阶段性特征:1949-1978年,以粮食增产为导向;1979-1984年,以粮为纲、全面发展;1985-1991年,以丰富农产品品种为导向;1992-1997年,以满足国内市场需求为导向;1998-2012年,以农业增效、农民增收为导向;2013年至今,以与国际市场接轨为导向。最后,文章对70年来的农业结构变迁作了经验总结:农业结构必须要顺应消费结构变化;农业结构内生于农业技术进步与农业要素禀赋;农业结构必须要适应国家战略要求的变化;必须让市场在资源配置中起决定性作用并更好地发挥政府的作用。

Using the endogenous driving mechanism of economic structure change,this paper constructs a general analysis framework of agricultural structure change under the open condition,and reviews the historical background,basic characteristics and achievements of agricultural structure change of new China in the past 70 years from the experience level.It is found that the trend of structural change in agriculture conforms to the general rule of structural change,and the change of agricultural structure presents obvious stage characteristics:from 1949 to 1978,oriented to increase grain production;from 1978 to 1984,grain was taken as the key and comprehensive development;from 1985 to 1991,oriented to rich agricultural products;from 1992 to 1997,meeting domestic market demand was taken as the guide;from 1998 to 2012,oriented to increase agricultural efficiency and farmers’income;from 2013 to now,oriented to integrate with the international market.Finally,the paper summarizes the experience of the changes of agricultural structure in the past 70 years:the agricultural structure must conform to the changes of consumption structure;the agricultural structure is born from the progress of agricultural technology and the endowment of agricultural elements;the agricultural structure must adapt to the changes of national strategic requirements;the market must play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and better play the role of the government.