“不可能三角”视角下城市能源系统转型研究:文献综述

Secure and sustainable transition of urban energy system:A literature review

构建统筹安全可靠、经济可行、绿色清洁的城市能源体系已成为重大战略需求。然而,由于受到技术、组织及宏观环境等因素制约,以上三大目标难以协同实现,被称为能源“不可能三角”。城市是社会经济活动的重要载体,也是能源消费和碳排放的主要来源。随着经济发展和城镇化进程的不断推进,我国城市将面临能源消费量快速增长、应对气候变化、环境治理与保护以及能源消费总量控制等挑战。因此,制定适宜的城市能源系统转型策略,对解决我国城市能源问题、促进经济绿色与高效发展具有重要意义。通过对本领域378篇学术论文的系统梳理,从时空角度定量分析了城市能源系统转型研究的发展规律和研究热点;并以此为基础,综述了:(1)“不可能三角”视角下能源系统绩效评估方法及其应用研究成果;(2)能源转型的关键影响因素及其影响机制;(3)破解能源三难困境的可能路径;(4)能源系统转型的经济环境影响。相关研究为构建适用于城市的能源绩效评估模型,明确城市能源系统向“安全-经济-绿色”协同发展目标转型的具体策略提供研究思路。

Building a reliable,economically feasible and green urban energy system has become a major strategic requirement for China.However,due to the constraints of technology,organization and macro-environment,it is difficult to achieve the above three goals in harmony,which is called the energy trilemma(ET).Cities are the center of social-economic activities,as well as the main body of energy consumption and carbon emissions.With the continuous advancement of economic development and urbanization,cities in China will face challenges such as rapid energy consumption growth,climate change adaptation,environmental governance and total energy consumption control.Therefore,it is of great significance to formulate appropriate strategies for urban energy system transition to solve urban energy problems in China.This study comprehensively investigates 378 journal articles regarding urban energy system transition and ET.In doing so,the principles of development and the shifts of research hotspots are quantitatively analysed from a space-time perspective.Based on the bibliometrics analysis,this paper summarizes:①The evaluation methods of energy systems from the perspective of ET;②The key driving factors and their influencing mechanisms of energy transition;③The possible solutions to ET;④The economic and environmental impacts of energy transition.Based on the literature review,this study provides research ideas for constructing an energy performance evaluation model suitable for cities and clarifying the specific strategies for urban energy system transition to the goal of“safety-economygreen”coordinated development.