碳交易驱动机制及区域协同路径研究

Research on carbon trading driving mechanism and regional synergy path

气候变暖和能源危机一直是当今世界备受瞩目的问题,碳交易被认为是解决该问题的重要手段之一。碳交易对于新能源及碳排放的影响不容忽视,碳交易的区域协同也有利于低碳经济的发展。综合能源经济与非线性动力系统理论,基于碳交易、新能源与碳排放三者之间的复杂关系,构建碳交易驱动下的新能源系统,并基于现有模型分别建立北京、上海两个新能源系统。在获取统计数据的基础上,研究碳交易对于新能源、碳排放的驱动机制,并对北京—上海碳交易市场的协同发展问题进行了情景分析,得出两地碳交易协同发展的最优路径。研究表明,碳交易对于新能源的发展有着较强的驱动作用,也可以通过碳交易—新能源—碳排放这一传导机制,实现对碳排放水平的有效抑制;新能源行业的发展有利于区域碳交易市场的协同,但要注意合理控制新能源发展规模,以免对碳交易的区域协同产生负面效应。

Climate warming and the energy crisis have always been high-profile issues in the world today,and carbon trading is considered to be one of the important means to solve this problem.The impact of carbon trading on new energy and carbon emissions cannot be ignored,and regional coordination of carbon trading is also conducive to the development of a low-carbon economy.Comprehensive energy economy and nonlinear dynamic system theory,based on the complex relationship between carbon trading,new energy and carbon emissions,a new energy system was built driven by carbon trading,and based on the existing models,two new energy systems were established in Beijing and Shanghai.On the basis of obtaining statistical data,the driving mechanism of carbon trading for new energy and carbon emissions was studied.A scenario analysis of the coordinated development of the Beijing-Shanghai carbon trading market was carried out,and the optimal path for the coordinated development of carbon trading between the two places was obtained.Research shows that carbon trading has a strong driving effect on the development of new energy,and can also effectively suppress carbon emission levels through the carbon tradingnew energy-carbon emission transmission mechanism.The development of the new energy industry is conducive to the coordination of the regional carbon trading market,but the development scale of new energy must be controlled rationally,so as not to have a negative effect on the regional coordination of carbon trading.