2008—2021年我国煤矿水害事故统计规律分析及预测研究

Statistical law analysis and forecast of coal mine water disaster accidents in China from 2008 to 2021

针对近年来我国煤矿水害威胁矿山企业安全生产的现象,通过整理国家及各省(直辖市、自治区)矿山安全监察局、煤矿安全生产网的2008—2021年水害事故资料,以数理统计的方法,从水害事故等级、时间、空间、矿井规模角度进行了分析,探讨了水害事故的发生规律,分析了原煤产量对百万吨死亡率的影响,对2022与2023年的百万吨死亡率做出了预测,并依据水害事故的特点提出了防治建议。结果表明:较大及以上等级的水害事故是煤矿水害防治的工作重点;水害事故在空间上高发于华北、东北、西南地区;水害事故在时间上高发于每年的3—4月、7—8月,每天的23∶00—1∶00,7∶00—9∶00,15∶00—17∶00,17∶00—19∶00;水害事故高发于小型矿井;原煤产量与百万吨死亡率呈长期的负相关协整关系,预计2022、2023年百万吨死亡率将分别下降至0.041与0.030。

In view of the phenomenon that coal mine water accidents threatened the safe production of mining enterprises in China in recent years,the data on water disaster accidents from 2008 to 2021 published by the national and local mine safety supervision bureaus and the coal mine safety net were collected and analyzed.The accident data was analyzed from the perspective of water accident grade,time,space and mine scale using mathematical statistics,and the occurrence law of water accident was discussed.The impact of raw coal production on the million-ton mortality rate was analyzed,and the million-ton mortality rate forecast for 2022 and 2023 was made and according to the characteristics of the flood accident,the prevention and control suggestions were put forward.The results show that relatively large and above water disaster accidents are the focus of water disaster prevention and control in coal mines.Spatially,coal mine flood accidents occur most frequently in North China,Northeast China and Southwest China.In terms of time,the water disaster accident occurs most frequently from March to April,July to August,every day from 23∶00 to 1∶00,from 7:00 to 9∶00,from 15∶00 to 17∶00,and from 17∶00 to 19∶00 has more flood accidents.Water disasters are more common in small mines.There is a long-term inverse relationship between raw coal production and the mortality rate of one million tons.It is expected that the mortality rate of one million tons will drop to 0.041 and 0.030 in 2022 and 2023.